Jamaica Gleaner
Published: Thursday | October 15, 2009
Home : Commentary
Liberal gamble in Canada

While the Americans are fighting it out over health-care reform and their president's Nobel Peace Prize, Canada opts for a more polite approach. Its chief political disagreement at the moment is whether the country's governor general, Michaelle Jean, erred when she referred to herself as its head of state.

Technically, the Queen is Canada's head of state. But if it were up to me, Ms Jean could be my GG any day (just look at her photo and you'll see why). But that is about as contentious as Canadian politics gets at the moment. And indeed, at most any time when the prime minister's name is not Pierre Trudeau or Brian Mulroney.

Not that the current incumbent, Stephen Harper, doesn't have his legions of detractors. He is seen as more right-wing than most Canadians, and a bit too admiring of the Americans in a nation that prides itself on being, well, not American. But while Harper has yet to persuade Canadians to give him a majority government, and while current polls suggest he still isn't making the sale, he remains secure in his job.

That's because the current opposition, the Liberals, can't seem to get their act together. They seem to be suffering from the same sort of conceit that has been known to characterise the odd Jamaican opposition - a conviction that the country will re-elect them at the next turn simply because they don't much like their current government.

The problem is, as we know all too well, savvy voters want an opposition party to give them a reason to vote for it. Merely repudiating the government of the day is seldom enough. Last year, when the Liberals replaced their well-meaning but uncharismatic leader, they hoped to restore their bygone popularity.

Beyond packaging

This is, after all, the party that has governed Canada for most of its post-colonial history. The Natural Party of Government, it used to be called. Canada: Liberal country. Change the leader, and you're back to the races. Sounds familiar? Voters look beyond the packaging. The current Liberal leader, who is known as a vision man, has for some reason damped down the vision. Instead, he has calculated that a gamble might position the Liberals to win the next election.

The Liberal leader has said that on any confidence motion, his party will now vote against the government. Should the other two parties in parliament go along, the government would thus fall, provoking another election. Polls indicate that were an election held today, the result would be scarcely different from what obtains at the moment: a Conservative minority. But Liberals probably don't want another election, at least not just yet. Their rivals, the New Democratic Party (NDP), are in even worse shape. So the Liberals are reckoning that to forestall an election, the NDP will have no choice but to vote with the government.

On the face of it, that will make the putatively socialist NDP the prop for a right-wing government. The Liberals will be able to resume their place as the genuine alternative to the Conservatives. Voilą.

Yet without fresh thinking and bold ideas, it seems unlikely the Liberals will evoke any more enthusiasm than they have already done - which is to say, not much. As it is, they are proving easy fodder for the Conservative attack-machine, which has studied the manuals of the US right pretty carefully.

The Conservatives have not made significant inroads into French Canada, which means they cannot form a government with a national basis. The Liberals may have a greater chance of doing this. But for now, they look marginal and inept.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent research think tank affiliated to the University of the West Indies, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.

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