Jamaica Gleaner
Published: Sunday | March 1, 2009
Home : Business
Changes in global order

David Jessop

The global order is changing. Driven by the economic crisis, the gradual drift of economic power away from the developed world is accelerating, as quite literally, the wealth of nations changes, alters global relationships and the exercise of power.

This will have, within a decade, significant long-term implications for Latin America and the Caribbean.

This is at its most apparent when it comes to the relationship between the United States (US) and China. The recent visit by the US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, to Beijing leaves little doubt that the US has quietly recognised that it is ceasing to be the world's sole superpower.

In a series of statements, Clinton implied that the US saw China as an equal and that it was now time for the two nations to work together to agree global strategic and economic objectives.

United states structure

Clinton's remarks represented more than just a change in tone between a Republican and Democratic administration. She all but made it clear, that without China - the biggest buyer of US Treasury bonds - the US economy would fail.

"We are," she said, "truly going to rise or fall together."

During her visit she sought to identify a basis for achieving a consensus with the nation that in the last decade has become the engine for global growth.

Later in a press conference with the Chinese foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, Clinton used language that suggested that the future dialogue between the US and China would proceed on the basis of equity.

In noting that it was essential that the United States and China had a positive and cooperative relationship, both countries, she said, "must now lead in designing and implementing a global response to stabilise the world's economy".

Clinton also spoke about Chinese engagement in the preparation for the April 2 Summit of G-20 leaders, cooperation in respect of climate change and security issues.

Bracketing the US and China together, Clinton told journalists: "The United States and China face formidable global challenges.

"The US is committed to pursuing a positive, cooperative relationship with China, one that we believe is important for the future peace, progress and prosperity for both countries and for the world."

Economic crisis

China was more circumspect, but coming at a time of unprecedented economic crisis, the visit and the accompanying remarks suggest the dawn of a new reality about the United States' place in the world.

Change too will come in Europe's world position and outlook.

The potential for serious economic turmoil in much of Central and Eastern Europe, and the rapid contraction of the Irish and United Kingdom economies, suggest a period of inter-European uncertainty, division, instability and weakness, followed by a reassessment of political and development priorities.

Russia's currently all-embracing international view, too, may fade as its economy struggles to overcome the severe economic shocks it is experiencing at present.

All of this is happening as India, Brazil and other former developing nations become wealthier and their views more central to global decision-making and to reviving the global economy.

It is also occurring as the huge sovereign-wealth funds of the Middle and Far East consider which nations' industries, bonds and currencies they wish to invest in.

The economic crisis is in many senses a watershed for the world in much the same way as Britain's indebtedness at the end of the World War II signalled the end of an empire and its global power, leaving Russia and the US the victors.

These are developments for which the Caribbean is largely unprepared.

They suggest that within a decade, the region or more probably, individual nations, or sub-Cariforum groupings will require a very different order of priority in their external relationships.

It also indicates the region will receive significantly less in the way of development assistance from traditional partners and will have to find new ways to position itself in the Americas and in the world that sets aside history.

For instance, the United Kingdom's interest in the Caribbean has been attenuating for some time.

It is moving from a region-wide interest in trade and investment, security and development assistance, towards a policy more likely to focus on long-term stability through minimalist programmes that support specific nations encourage private sector-led growth and helps defend national and regional security, while supporting internationally Caribbean interests.

In contrast, Spain's direct role is strengthening. Speaking about this recently when he visited Trinidad and Jamaica, the Spanish king, Juan Carlos, could not have been more specific. Seemingly unencumbered by Spain's colonial past in the hemisphere, he spoke with confidence about his nation's historic ties with the Americas.

He illustrated his nation's high recent levels of investment in the energy and tourism sectors in the Caribbean and talked about the way in which his government and the private sector were working in close partnership to support regional development.

The world is changing; so too should the Caribbean.

David Jessop is director of the Caribbean Council. Email: david. jessop@caribbean-council.org.

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