A few shoppers walking Mall Plaza in Kingston on Monday, December 22. Christmas shopping has been low-key this season, but there are expectations that the usual last-minute shopping rush on Christmas Eve will boost activities at stores. - Photo by Dionne Rose

Multilink withdrawals for the month of December are projected to top the $7 billion mark for the first time in any one month, says operators of the Jamaican network.

Still, while those estimates are up to $700 million or six to 11 per cent above last year's amount, the forecast represents real decline given that the Jamaican dollar buys 17 per cent less value than a year ago, based on annual inflation of 16.8 per cent recorded at November.

"We expect that December 2008 should yield around $6.7 billion in withdrawals and may cross the $7 billion mark for the first time in one month," said Edmundo Jenez, general manager of JETS Limited, the electronic network which tracks ABM and point-of-sales trans-actions on the Multilink system.

X-mas shopping

Such activity tends to be used as proxy for Christmas-shopping activity, in terms of whether it is increasing or decreasing, but does not capture all transactions.

"We expect the usual Christmas shopping surges with new record-setting levels over the weekend of Decem-ber 19-21, and peaking activity for Christmas Eve," said Jenez.

Last year, JETS recorded $6.2 billion from 1,474 million transactions in December.

There are 513 ABMs and 7,212 POS terminals connected to the network nationwide.

This year, with the economic downturn and higher prices for goods and services, the shops are not as busy, but some distributors and merchants say sales are up, slightly.

Expected sales

"Sales are up as expected this time of year, but only marginally versus the same period last year when one accounts for inflation," said Michael Subratie, managing director of T. Geddes Grant Limited.

Added Anthony Bell, finance director at Lascelles deMercado & Company Limited, "Generally speaking, although sales picked up slightly in early December, we are projecting that the quarter will be down on last year by 10 to 15 per cent."

While merchants are reporting mixed views, JETS data for the first 16 days in the month of December show higher Christmas spending of about 19 per cent above the previous year.

For the period December 1 to 16, transactions reached $3.2 billion, compared to $2.7 billion in the corresponding two-week period last year.

Cardholders activity

Up to that point, there was recorded activity from 273,991 cardholders on the Multilink system. JETS expects that number to grow to 365,000 cardholders by the end of the month.

Also, for the first two weeks of December, cardholders spent $4,194 on average, compared to $3,862 last year or $330 more.

The December activity tracks with the performance of Multilink transaction for the first 11 months of 2008, when ABM and POS withdrawals together topped $58.8 billion - $9.8 billion or 20 per cent more than the January to November 2007 period.

On average, cardholders spent $4,067.19 compared to $3,762.80.

"Normal transaction activity tends to follow certain regular patterns such as weekly grocery shopping, buying gas for the car, clothes shopping and paying bills," said Jenez. "In fact, the top venues for POS or in-store transactions consistently remain supermarkets, gas stations, pharmacies and department stores."

sabrina.gordon@gleanerjm.com