It seems fitting that in the week it turns 20, the re-unified Germany would re-elect a chancellor (the German equivalent of a prime minister) from the east. After all, it was the reintegration of the former German Democratic Republic - better known in its day as East Germany - into the Federal Republic of Germany that brought about reunification.

World War II split Germany down the middle. The Soviets occupied the country's eastern quadrant and the Western allies the rest. Within a few years, the occupiers had left, leaving independent states in their wake.

It was around this time that Angela Merkel was born in the West. Soon afterwards, her father, a Lutheran pastor, moved to the East to take charge of a church there.

If West Germany, rebuilt with Marshall Plan money, rediscovered its independence and vitality, East Germany became ever more a puppet of Moscow. And yet the Merkel family enjoyed the unusual privilege of being able to move between the two countries. Young Angela went through the usual routines of an East German childhood, including serving in the communist youth organisations. But she also knew that the West was overtaking the bleak if egalitarian East.

Party conversion

After the Soviet bloc fell and Germany reunited, she moved quickly into the Christian Democratic Union, the country's largest right-wing party. When she rose to the leadership of the party earlier this decade, many saw in her a Teutonic Margaret Thatcher - a conservative woman who converted her party with an agenda of sweeping economic reform.

However, when she won power in 2005, she softened. Germany uses a proportional representation electoral system. No party ever wins an outright majority, and so coalitions are inevitable. Right-wing parties failed to gather a majority of votes, and so Merkel was forced into an alliance with the left-wing Social Democratic Party (SPD).

Last weekend, the right won outright victory. However, Merkel's own party barely repeated its score from the last election. Instead, the tax-slashing Free Democratic Party (FDP) surged, and will deliver Merkel enough seats to form a right-wing coalition.

Yet that does not necessarily mean German will veer sharply rightwards. Germans love their welfare state. As Merkel discovered when she squandered a big poll lead in the 2005 elections, too radical a platform risks alienating the centre. Besides, her room for manoeuvre will be limited. The government has run up its debt to stimulate the economy. The scope for serious tax-cutting is limited.

Dreadful shape

So while her coalition enjoys a comfortable majority, relations with the FDP may be a bit tricky to manage. However, she will benefit from an opposition that is, for now, in no position to challenge her. The Social Democrats are in dreadful shape, having suffered a massive drop in their own support. Over the last decade or so, the SPD joined other socialist parties in the developed countries in moving to the centre. In the process, disaffected socialists drifted outwards. In Germany, they blended with the remnants of communism in the East to form the Left Party.

Support for the Left Party surged in this election. The performance of the environmentalist Green Party also improved substantially. In response, it is likely the SPD will move leftwards. But the problem is that while left-wing loyalists want a party that is truer to its origins, there is little evidence that a majority of Germans share their view. It is unlikely a reconstituted, socialist SPD could form a government.

As a result, we can probably look for German politics to settle into a period of gradualist conservative reform. The revolution may occur one day, but perhaps not just yet.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent research think tank affiliated with the University of the West Indies, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.