"A projection of 11.2 per cent in gross earnings this year is completely unrealistic," McNeill told Parliament during his sectoral debate present-ation Tuesday.

"The fact is that growth in arrivals is flat. We might get a little upward or downward movement, but arrivals will remain anaemic because the global recession has not abated, nor is there any indication that it will do so in the very near future," stated the opposition spokesman.

He said that in order to keep the island's arrival figures up, which for the first five months of this year recorded a 3.2 per cent growth, the industry has had to do some heavy discounting.

Expenditure down

"In some areas of the hotel sector, discounting is as high as 50 to 60 per cent and if you speak with retailers they will tell you expenditure is down."

According to McNeill, while in-bond shops have seen their earnings slashed by 30-40 per cent, he had been reliably informed that a number of shops at Sangster International Airport were closing their shutters permanently.

"So it stands to reason that gross earnings by all indications will go down," he explained.

He is, therefore, cautioning Bartlett to revise his 11.2 per cent projected earnings, "because it is misleading to the people of Jamaica, the stakeholders in the industry and to those who plan the economy, the BOJ (Bank of Jamaica) and Ministry of Finance".

McNeill's call came as the balance of payment summary published by the Bank of Jamaica estimated that for the period January-March 2009, at the height of the winter tourist season, inflows from travel declined by US$48.8 million, roughly nine per cent.

In 2008, earnings from tourism increased by 3.4 per cent to reach US$1.98 billion, and the level of discounting was much less.

janet.silvera@gleanerjm.com