A USA Today poll released this week held some worrying news for the Obama administration. More Americans now disapprove than approve of the way he is handling the economy and health-care reform. While his overall approval ratings remain positive, they are lower than those for most presidents at this stage in their presidencies.

Those who would like to see the Obama love-fest continue - full disclosure: I'm guilty as charged - have to confront the fact that he is actually on shaky ground. Barack Obama came to office with a lot of capital. He spent virtually all of it at once on an ambitious programme of social reforms, bank and automobile bailouts and economic stimulus. So if he is to remain sufficiently popular to continue to push through his ambitious agenda, those investments will have to begin generating returns soon.

The omens are troubling. By pumping billions of dollars into the banks and underwriting trillions of dollars of loans, the president has arrested the financial crisis. Bank profits are booming. The stock market is happy.

So the rich, who own most of America's traded equity, are smiling. But Main Street has yet to see much joy. Unemployment continues rising as firms restore profits by slashing jobs. The administration says the turnaround will come later this year. Most economists agree.

The problem is that it may turn out to be a jobless recovery. Workers may continue losing jobs, all while profits improve. So Americans may start to think that the government's economic policy was to spend billions upon billions of taxpayer money to pay off the rich bankers who created the crisis in the first place.

If so, they'd be right. I still maintain that by anchoring his economic team around Larry Summers and Tim Geithner, President Obama largely handed the economy's management to Wall Street. He said that in return for government assistance, banks would have to learn to live with stricter government regulation.

Yeah, right. Before coming back into the White House, Summers was collecting fat bonuses from Wall Street. Surprise, surprise: Summers is now said to be resisting much tighter regulation. And, because the Obama administration has enshrined the 'too-big-to-fail doctrine', it is winking at the banks and saying if they take too many risks again, well, they'll be rescued yet again.

So party like it's 1999. If, as Summers and Geithner appear to believe, Wall Street leads America back out of recession, then all credit will go to them and their boss. But if the economy sinks back into recession; if house prices keep falling and credit-card users begin defaulting on their loans, the banks may find themselves back in a bad way.

The risk of that happening remains, if diminished, since earlier this year. "Trust us," Wall Street and its friends in the Obama administration are saying. Of course, the last time we did that they nearly destroyed the world economy. But if they really have learnt their lessons, and are more prudent now, then they will be proved right. The economy will bounce back, Obama's capital will be restored, and he'll be able to take on the doubters.

Starting to face opposition

But, for the moment, the doubters seem to smell blood. They are starting to nip at the heels of the administration. Obama is starting to face opposition from within his own party on some issues, and Republicans are growing more confident in their criticisms of his economic policy.

A lot is at stake. It is one of the biggest gambles an incoming president has taken. His supporters will have to keep their fingers crossed, tight.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent research think tank affiliated to the University of the West Indies, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.