The agreements, in principle, to sell two of the state-owned sugar factories - Hampden, Trelawny, and Duckenfield, St Thomas - ought to be good news for the Government.

It can begin to look forward to the release by the European Union of $253 million at the end of its current review and, perhaps more important, relief from the $2-billion-a-year loss by the Sugar Company of Jamaica (SCJ).

But, as the agriculture minister, Dr Christopher Tufton, and his boss, Prime Minister Bruce Golding, are painfully aware after the debacle with Infinity Bio-Energy, there can be 'many a slip between cup and lip'. In the case of the deal with Infinity, it wasn't so much a slip as a huge spill. Infinity couldn't muster even the down payment on the US$125-million acquisition of the five SCJ factories and estates.

Strategic assumptions and goals

With the experience of Infinity behind it, we assume that the Government, in making the announcement, is fairly confident of its arrangements with Everglades Ltd, the vehicle being used by the Hussey family for the acquisition of Hampden, and with the Fred M. Jones/Seprod Ltd, the consortium that will take over Duckenfield. We have no cause to question the capacity of these Jamaican entities to fulfil, within the agreed timetable, the obligations they have undertaken.

The Government now has to finalise deals for the three remaining factories, which Minister Tufton suggested were well in train.

By the time he comes to announce these arrangements, but preferably before then, we have one request of Minister Tufton - that he address the issue of the strategic assumptions and goals that have guided this new effort at divestment. That it wasn't fulsomely dealt with by Dr Tufton in a major speech in Parliament last week could only have been an oversight.

We do not expect the Government to tell private firms how to run their businesses.

Sugar industry a big employer

But, given sugar's role as a big employer - more than 30,000 people - Jamaican governments have long deemed it to be a strategic industry. It is no surprise, therefore, that when it became clear that preferential markets in Europe would end, the Government was intent on maintaining a business based on sugar cane.

Infinity's plan was to halve sugar output, producing a little over 60,000 tonnes a year, reduce the output of molasses and convert sugar cane to ethanol - 135,000 tonnes annually. This idea fell within the Government's strategy of displacing up to 10 per cent of gasolene with ethanol - the E10 blend - which is proving to be an expensive and loss-making exercise.

The question, therefore, is what now are the strategic considerations of the administration and whether ethanol remains at its core. It is to be recalled that the Infinity deal included the sale of the Petrojam ethanol plant at a song!

It would also be useful to know if the administration had reverted to the early idea of producing enough sugar to satisfy the domestic market - 130 tonnes of raw and refined sugar - and if the new arrangements presume Jamaica's ability to lower production suffiently to compete internationally.

Such information would help others to determine whether investments in various sectors to take advange of or to support sugar would be worthwhile.