World Bank officials are hardly known to make dire predictions about the economic prospects of member countries. The warning by Badrul Haque, an official of the bank, about the potential consequences were a Category 4 hurricane to hit Jamaica was, however, very timely.

According to press reports, he has remarked that the island is the most exposed country to multiple hazards, having suffered massive hurricane-related losses in 2007 and 2008 of over US$1.2 billion, which are still being felt.

The spell of hurricanes and tropical storms has, however, been longer, and the losses far greater than Haque has revealed. Most important, the disastrous weather has hurt the rural population by increasing the levels of poverty in the affected parishes. In most cases, the disruptions of production and damage to property have resulted in a reversal of the downward trend in poverty that preceded these disasters. This has added to the rural/urban drift, exacerbating the problem of squatting in our major towns and cities.

Entire communities have been displaced and the landscape altered in ways that have revealed the harmful effects of some human settlements. And though infrastructural damage has, for obvious reasons, been the most talked about, equally significant are the vulnerabilities of our coastline and the potentially catastrophic weaknesses in drainage systems that have been exposed. What might have shocked the World Bank official is how the huge budget and debt problems of the country have crippled the ability of the State to mobilise the substantial resources needed to implement protective measures, and the grave risks which this poses.

Frequency of hurricane

If the frequency with which Jamaica has been struck by hurricane weather in the current decade were to be sustained, it would be cause for great concern. In the seven-year period 2002-2008, we were battered in five of those years by hurricanes - 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008. From flooding related to hurricanes Isidore and Lili in successive weeks in September 2002, when rainfall in that month exceeded the 30-year mean by 180 per cent, to a virtual hit by Ivan in 2004, our farmers were bombarded by severe weather. By July 2005, they were buffeted by winds from Dennis and Emily, again in successive weeks, an unusually early occurrence, followed by flooding from Tropical Storm Wilma in October. Our farmers in the southern parishes bore the brunt of the dislocation, and after a respite in 2006, they were again hammered by Dean in 2007, and Tropical Storm Gustav, in 2008.

Not surprising, the result was a steep decline in agricultural production of around 20 per cent by 2008, as output fell by seven per cent in 2002, 11.2 per cent in 2004, 6.8 per cent in 2005, six per cent in 2007, and 5.1 per cent in 2008. In the process, long-standing industries have wilted, most notably the banana-export industry, which barely began its recovery programme after each hurricane season, before being struck down by more damaging weather in succeeding years. Thus, banana exports went from roughly 43,000 tonnes in 2001, to almost nothing in 2008, wiping out export earnings, which stood at over US$18 million in 2001, and gravely affecting the livelihood of thousands, particularly in St Thomas, Portland and St Mary, whose economic base was already being eroded.

But as Haque made clear, Jamaica has not only been exposed to hurricanes we have been hit by multiple hazards. Apart from almost yearly visits from hurricanes and even more frequent floods, drought conditions have also inflicted significant damage to farmers and the rural economy, although with less regularity in the past two decades. In 1997, we were hit by the worst drought in decades, resulting in agricultural output declining by 14.6 per cent. The annual rainfall in that year totalled only 67 per cent of the 30-year normal level. Export agriculture was particularly badly hurt, with output falling by 11.5 per cent.

Worst-hit industries

Sugar cane and banana production were among the worst hit, and in fact, that was the beginning of the slide for banana exports, as we entered the current cycle of frequent hurricanes at the new dawn of the new millennium. From a high of 89,000 tonnes in 1996, exports fell to about 62,300 in 1998, and further, to 42,000 tonnes by the year 2000, with the earnings falling by nearly a half, from US$44.1 million to just under US$23 million. Though the impact on sugar-cane output was less severe, the drought precipitated a fallout, which has continued into this decade. The evidence of the decline in fortunes of these industries is reflected in the state of decay of major towns in the sugar and banana belts.

The negative effects of these episodes of hazardous weather go beyond the damage to the various industries and rural communities. They have also contributed to our macro-economic challenges - inflation, interest rates and budget deficits. Higher food prices arising from the hurricane-related dislocation of domestic food output helped to push inflation rates into double digits in 2003, 2004 and 2005, and again in 2007 and 2008. This hurricane-induced inflation accounted for a major chunk of the cumulative inflation rate of over 100 per cent for the 2002-2008 period, contributing to the upward pressure on interest rates that added to our debt and budget-deficit problems.

The word that the World Bank is working with Jamaica to strengthen our disaster-management systems is, therefore, encouraging. This help must, however, include resources on concessional terms for a comprehensive programme to protect our most vulnerable areas and fortify our food-producing regions.

Dennis Morrison is an economist. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.