Where will the taxes come from to pay for the largest tax package in the history of the country ($18 billion to $24 billion) when the economy continues to decline? Will it come from workers such as nurses, teachers, policemen and civil servants who are on a wage-freeze?

These persons' purchasing power has declined by 20 per cent because of inflation, so how are they expected to pay more taxes? Do we expect persons who have their salaries cut to pay more taxes? Do we expect persons to use their redundancy money to underwrite this tax package? Do we expect minimum-wage earners, whose earnings, especially for many single mothers, are already below the poverty line, to fork out more for taxes? Are the pensioners to bear this burden? Are persons to dip into their savings to pay these taxes? With 80 per cent of Jamaicans having on average, $800,000 in savings, it is unrealistic.

Tax package unreasonable

This can be likened to the situation related in the Bible in which the Egyptian pharaoh gave the enslaved children of Israel straw to make bricks and then decided not to give them straw, but rather that they should gather the straws themselves while making the same number of bricks (Exodus 5:6-14). The tax package is unreasonable.

The economy declined by one per cent and is projected to decline by another 3.5 per cent and we expected to get more taxes? This is unsustainable. The last time we had two consecutive years of negative growth of that size was in 1973 and 1974.

Dennis Chung, accountant and Government's financial adviser in Charting Jamaica's Economic and Social Development, has many tables and charts about Jamaica's economic performance since Independence and he has compared us with the region and the world. My analysis of Table 2 shows that the average performance of Jamaica's economic growth in the JLP administration years (1962-72) leading up to the economic decline of 1973 and 1974 was 7.04 per cent, while for the PNP administration years 1997-2007 it is 0.9 per cent leading up to these declining growth rates for 2008 and 2009. In other words, the foundation of the economy was 700 per cent stronger in the 1970s in its ability to survive the economic decline than it is today!

Furthermore, the European Union is due to decline by four per cent this year and I cannot see Jamaica doing better than the European Union when it is realised that Jamaica normally does three per cent worse than the world economy. In other words, the economy is likely to decline more than the Government expects.

Two weeks ago, I proposed an alternative, based on the principles that we should tax foreigners and luxury items, and sin taxes. I suggested that we institute a Jamaican visa for non-CARICOM residents at a cost of US$100, which could raise approximately eight billion dollars. Fortuitously, the day before my article appeared, Delta Airlines, the largest airline in the world, announced a US$50 charge, to take effect on July 1, 2009, on the second checked bag for international travellers - not domestic travellers. In addition, a few weeks ago, the British government instituted a luxury tax on the rich. High-income earners have to pay more income tax. But, in Jamaica the tax package does not target the wealthy for special taxation.

Extortion

A Christian building contractor said that he prefers to pay extortion money to dons rather than to the police who charge more than the dons. The PM likened the fees policy in some schools to extortion but I believe, based on this Budget, that the population would rather deal with principals than Golding's tax package.

This budget as designed will lead to economic problems similar to the 1970s and social problems similar to the 1980s. Already, according to the director general of the PIOJ, Dr Wesley Hughes, malnutrition is on the increase.

The Government's Budget needs to change course.

Devon Dick is pastor of the Boulevard Baptist Church and author of 'Rebellion to Riot: The Church in Nation Building'. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.