That Prime Minister Bruce Golding is seeking to re-engage the Opposition in the so-called Vale Royal talks is good, if not overdue, news.
We would have preferred the dialogue ahead of the formal parliamentary debate on the Budget, which starts in a week's time. For, as is being increasingly acknowledged, Jamaica faces a deep economic crisis. Crafting a solution, in this environment, can only be hindered by overly partisan bickering.
It may just make sense, therefore, for Mr Golding, even at this stage, to delay the debate and make this round of the Vale Royal talks primarily about the economy. Hopefully, both sides can emerge from the talks with a clear agenda for action and reform to be pursued without political distraction, or fear by the Government that the need to take necessary, tough actions will be used to undermine its legitimacy. Nor will passivity on the part of the Opposition be helpful. The need is for national consensus, achievement of which is more likely on the back of bipartisan agreement.
That the administration grasps, belatedly, the scope of the difficulties that confront Jamaica is evident from the expenditure estimates that Mr Audley Shaw tabled last week. The overall Budget of $547 billion, as most analysts have noted, is, in real terms, a decline of around five per cent on the previous year's expenditure, given inflation for 2008/2009 of about 12.5 per cent. That, however, is not fully the story.
Once this year's debt-servicing charges of approximately $309 billion is removed, the $239 billion that remains is precisely the same amount of discretionary spending as was available to the Government in the last fiscal year. This represents a drop, in real terms, of over 12 per cent.
The global credit crisis, allied with a fiscal deficit of about seven per cent of GDP, plus downgrades of Jamaica by the international rating agencies limit the Government's ability to borrow its way out of the crisis. The decision to freeze public-sector wages underlines the difficulties, but even that is merely a palliative, not a long-term solution. As we have pointed out, and Mr Golding now accepts, it will require that around 20,000 jobs be trimmed from a overnment that is bloated and inefficient.
Country needs vision
Several of the pet projects on which Mr Golding's party swept to office need to be jettisoned or scaled back. Loss-making state enterprises need to be closed or divested. The Government, in other words, needs to get back to its core functions of providing social infrastructure, security, a regulatory environment that is not suffocating to commercial activities and a safety net for the society's most vulnerable.
And very critically, the political leadership has to provide the country with a vision, a big idea, to progress. That big idea may be a series of small things, enunciated with clarity, which people believe can provide the foundation for economic advance.
Mr Golding and his party have the responsibility to lead, but in this maelstrom the task can't be theirs alone. The PM should not be afraid to embrace all the people's representatives.
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