By now, the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) should have begun a serious analysis, and deep introspection, into Monday's by-election in the West Portland constituency, where, if the party chooses to admit the truth, it suffered a humiliating defeat.

Should the PNP's president, Mrs Portia Simpson Miller, be honest with herself, while Monday's event may not amount to a mortal wound, the outcome was a severe blow to her credibility as leader, given that by her own act - judging from the vigour with which she threw herself into the fray - it was substantially a Portia Simpson Miller affair.

Indeed, the whole process calls into question Mrs Simpson Miller's judgment, most fundamentally with the PNP's choice of Kenneth Rowe to contest the seat against the Jamaica Labour Party's Daryl Vaz.

The incumbent

Mr Vaz, for ease of reference, might be considered to have been the parliamentary incumbent for the constituency. He ostensibly won the seat for the JLP in the September 2007 general election, gaining 6,977 of the ballots cast, or 53.62 per cent of the popular vote, against 6,033, or 46.37 per cent for Abe Dabdoub, who had defected from the JLP.

However, Mr Dabdoub, prior to the election, had challenged Mr Vaz's eligibility, given his dual citizenship (in a non-Commonwealth country), to sit in the Jamaican legislature. Mr Dabdoub won in the courts, which held that Mr Vaz, in contravention of the Constitution, was "by virtue of his own act, under ... acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power or state".

A by-election was ordered. Mr Vaz promptly renounced his US citizenship, hence his ability to contest Monday's vote, held in the context of Jamaica's searing economic crisis, and the JLP's wafer-thin four-seat majority in the House, where the governing party faces three other eligibility challenges. And here is where the questions about Mrs Simpson Miller's judgement begin: the assumption being that her party is more concerned with political expedience than morality.

Constitutional challenge

Having backed Mr Dabdoub's constitutional challenge of Mr Vaz, she sanctioned the PNP's choice of Mr Rowe as its standard-bearer in West Portland - a man who, by virtue of his own act, carries a Canadian passport. That decision was within the bounds of the Constitution (Canada being a Commonwealth country), but is unlikely to have inspired anyone but the most die-hard PNP supporter.

Mr Vaz on Monday won with 7,915 votes or 58.33 per cent of the ballots. He increased his tally over the last election by 938 votes or 13 per cent and his majority over the PNP from 944 to 2,289.

At the same time, Mr Rowe, with 5,626 votes, or 41.4 per cent of those cast, won 407 or 6.74 per cent fewer ballots than Mr Dabdoub did in 2007. Moreover, Mr Vaz picked up support from people who previously voted PNP.

In this election, 558 or 4.28 per cent more people voted. Yet, the increase in Mr Vaz's tally over the two elections was 68 per cent more than the total number of additional voters. All this happened with Mrs Simpson Miller as an active presence in West Portland, attempting to leverage national popularity and what the PNP hoped would be disaffection with the economic situation.

The PNP leader now has to calculate where she went wrong.

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