Dabdoub
Western Portland was among the 32 constituencies fixed in the Constitution granted to Jamaica by Order in Council October 27, 1944. The constituency is bounded by the following - from a point where the Guava River crosses the Portland/St Thomas parish boundary, thence along in a westerly direction along the Portland/St Thomas parish boundary to the St. Andrew/Portland Parish Boundary, continuing along the St Andrew/Portland parish boundary to the St Mary/Portland parish boundary, northerly along the St Mary/Portland parish boundary to the sea coast, easterly along the Rio Grande to where it meets the Guava River, along the Guava River back to the starting point at the Portland/St Thomas parish boundary.
Of the 37 candidates who contested the 14 general elections between December 14, 1944 and September 3, 2007, only five were successful. The five were Leopold Lynch (JLP), Leslie Birch (PNP), St Clair Shirley (JLP), Errol Ennis (PNP) and Daryl Vaz (JLP). Only one of those five candidates was defeated - St Clair Shirley. Leopold Lynch (JLP) after seven consecutive victories 1944, 1949, 1955, 1959, 1962, 1967 and 1972 retired. Leslie Birch (PNP) after winning in 1976 was replaced by Evadney Shirley who contested the October 30, 1980 election. St Clair Shirley won the 1980 general election by the largest majority since 1944 - 1,858. However, after having been returned in the December 15, 1983 snap election, unopposed by acclamation, he lost to Errol Ennis (PNP) in the February 9, 1989 election. Errol Ennis, by polling 6,848 votes to St Clair Shirley (JLP) 5,977, had a comfortable majority of 871. In 1993, Ennis increased his majority by 525 (60.2 per cent ) and went on to retain the seat by the largest majority for the said constituency, in the 1997 general election - 2,153 - a 54.2 per cent increase on his 1993 majority.
second-smallest majority
In 2002, running against the JLP's new kid on the block Kenneth Rowe, Ennis had the second-smallest majority since 1944, a mere 281. Only Leopold Lynch's very slender 69-margin against the PNP's Oswald Bradshaw in the July 28, 1959 election was less. This was indeed too close for comfort and the veteran politician wisely 'hang up his gloves'.
To the surprise of many K.D. Rowe parted ways with the JLP, giving his support to the PNP in both the September 3, 2007 and December 5, 2007 elections. It is now a fact that the former JLP 2002 candidate is now the PNP candidate for the March 23, 2009 by-election. Kenneth Rowe will contest against the man who replaced him as the JLP candidate in the September 3, 2007 election. This is the direct result of an election petition brought against Daryl Vaz (JLP) by Abe Dabdoub, the losing PNP candidate, and the subsequent landmark ruling disqualifying the winning candidate and the ruling being upheld by the Court of Appeal. What a contest this promises to be, as two excellent candidates square off in a marginal JLP constituency.
PNP at bay
Of the 14 contested parliamentary general elections 1944 to 2007, the JLP won nine times to the PNP's five times. In 1976, when Leslie Birch (PNP) defeated Dan Green by 569 votes, the JLP was losing West Portland for the first time in 32 years, as the indomitable parliamentarian, Leopold Augustus Lynch, during his tenure, had the PNP at bay. His feat of seven consecutive victories was only surpassed by Edward Seaga (JLP) who had nine consecutive victories in Kingston Western between 1962 and 2002. As I indicated before, the dominance of the JLP in West Portland was broken in 1989 when Errol Ennis (PNP) took charge and reigned supreme for 18 and a half years.
The West Portland by-election will be conducted on the November 30, 2008 official voters list. So with this voters list having 18,723 electors, an increase of 760 (4.2 per cent) over the September 3, 2007 list, both parties will have to be a motivating force behind their supporters with the express purpose of getting them to vote on March 23. This by-election is a crucial one for both JLP and PNP. A majority in the region of 2,000, as predicted by the former MP, would put the ruling JLP in an almost unbeatable position for the likely contests in St Ann North East, Clarendon North West and St Catherine North East, indeed a strong message would be sent to the opposition PNP - 'The people have spoken'. However, on the other hand, should the JLP fail to secure the September 3, 2007 944-majority with a voter turnout of anything near 72.8 per cent, victories for the PNP in both Clarendon North West and St Catherine North East would definitely be on the cards. Should the turnout be in the region of 59.7 per cent, the same as the December 5, 2007 local government election, and the JLP margin of victory falls significantly below 1,720, it would trigger shock waves in the JLP camp.
served well
Daryl Vaz, during his tenure as the member of parliament for Portland West, served the people well, so was the St Catherine North Western PNP incumbent Jack Stephenson. This excellent servant of the people (Jack Stephenson) was dethroned in the 1980 general election by a virtual unknown Audley Woodhouse, who polled 6,109 votes to Stephenson's 5,876 - majority 233. There is no doubt that St Catherine North Western was caught up in the web of the national swing against the PNP.
The question is, some 28 years later - 'Will history repeat itself?' It is very likely that with the social and economic hardships pervading the land a significant number of the September 3, 2007 voters could stay away from the polls, thus opening the gate for the triumphant entry of Kenneth Rowe to the chambers of Gordon House on his second attempt.
With the campaign on in earnest, the polls are showing a statistical dead heat between the two parties. Can the indomitable Daryl Vaz make the difference, or will Kenneth Rowe create an upset that could put the incumbent JLP in a 'spot of bother'? A careful examination of all the data available points to a very close contest, too close to call.
Anthony Myers is a statistician/political analyst. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.