The 2007 general elections were not quite settled. They were only a partial settlement convenient in order to have government and offset a possible constitutional crisis. The unsettled issues went to court.

The court was asked whether Daryl Vaz, who held dual citizenship, was qualified under the constitution to have a seat in parliament, and whether a by-election should be held or the seat awarded to Abe Dabdoub. The court decided that he should not have a seat and a by-election should be held.

This by-election is special. It could have the same effect as a general election, triggering other by-elections that could result in a change of government. In this sense, it holds the balance in our democracy. However, the by-election is not simply a rerun of the elections of September 3, 2007. This is what the legal remedy intends. But in politics, nothing remains the same and the remedy is therefore not applied to the situation for which judgment was passed.

new situation

What is the new situation and whom does it favour? Daryl Vaz remains the JLP candidate but has had access to a possible $40 million allocation from the Constituency Development Fund for projects in the constituency. The PNP candidate would not likely come close to matching this.

Vaz would have had the benefit of an 18-month old administration. The PNP says that the government has spent millions on projects in West Portland. The Government would have had its eye on the possibility and vital importance of a by-election in this constituency over those 18 months. Vaz himself, the PNP says, has continued to use authority and privileges of a minister of government, including a diplomatic passport to which he is no longer entitled.

Under these circumstances, the playing field cannot be a level one. If the court seeks to give justice to the PNP candidate, it cannot do so because it cannot order that political arrangements like campaign spending be the same for both candidates. It cannot ensure that government spending not favour a constituency in which an election is to be held. The court can make judgments that intend to give equal balance to principles of fairness but it cannot give justice in politics.

even worse

What is even worse is that there is a feeling in the PNP that the JLP had known before the elections that some of its candidates had held dual citizenship and had them nominated, believing them to be the persons with the best chance to win. The court's ruling has given Vaz a second chance with the political advantages of incumbency and the influence of election spending.

What else has changed? Dabdoub won't be in a position to get the seat he felt he deserved. But he has been vindicated by the court's ruling that Vaz was not qualified to be nominated and sit as a member of parliament. He has done Jamaica's constitution and the democracy it upholds a great service. In fact, this election might be seen as a battle for the integrity of the constitution.

The new candidate is Kenneth Rowe. He can get political justice for himself and restore the balance of justice at the same time. He is running in a constituency that the PNP had won for 18 years up to September 2007. Rowe himself had contested the constituency on behalf of the JLP in 2002. He came closer to winning than any JLP candidate had come in those 18 years, losing by just under 300 votes.

Rowe would be justified to seek justice of his own. After doing so well in 2002, he was replaced as a candidate when Bruce Golding assumed the party's leadership in 2006. He resigned from the JLP and continued to work in the constituency for the PNP, which he joined in 2006. He worked right through the September general and December local government elections of 2007. He is no stranger to the constituency and the polls and soundings should give him cause for much optimism

DEFENDING THE RECORD

What has also changed is that Vaz and his party now have a record in the constituency to defend. A Market Research Limited (Don Anderson) poll commissioned by the PNP in February showed that the two parties were in a statistical tie in the West Portland, despite Vaz's presence, spending and 18-month campaigning in the constituency.

The poll shows that 49 per cent of respondents in West Portland think that the country is going in the wrong direction, compared to 28 per cent who believe it is going in the right direction, a difference of 21 per cent. It showed that 45 per cent thought that the PNP would do a better job of running the country, compared to 39 per cent who thought the JLP would. Despite claims about the world economic crisis, most people in West Portland thought the PNP could manage the crisis better.

percentAGE support

The poll also showed that each party had 42 per cent support. This is far from the landslide that the JLP is talking about. The party would have to be worried considering that the PNP's candidate was only just selected and the JLP has been spending and campaigning for a long time.

The poll showed, and this is most telling, that 32 per cent of the people of West Portland felt that Vaz was doing a bad or very bad job, while 21 per cent thought he was doing a good or very good job. But alarmingly, 47 per cent could not say either way. He seemed to have had no impact on nearly half of his constituents. It is among the 47 per cent that the by-election will be decided so that it is a wide open race. This could be read to mean that more people also feel that West Portland is going in the wrong direction than in the right direction.

Much is at stake, the future government, the integrity of the constitution, and the leadership of West Portland.

Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona Campus. Email: Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm or columns@gleanerjm.com

Vaz