Jamaica Gleaner
Published: Friday | December 26, 2008
Home : Commentary
Closing the book on a troubled year

When the pyramid scheme collapsed, some investors lost everything. Businesses folded, families sold homes, some were left destitute. Up to the last minute, they had trusted the genius of the scheme manager, and were reassured by the regular stream of investments he announced. And when they had asked for their money back, investors usually got it in days. Then one day, the money stopped flowing.

That could be a report on the collapse of Cash Plus or any of a host of other investment schemes that proliferated until earlier this year. But I am paraphrasing from an article in last week's New York Times on the collapse of a massive pyramid scheme in the United States. Perhaps the only major difference between theirs, and our home-grown varieties, was that the American scheme manager at least offered a seemingly realistic return of 10 per cent per year - even then, some market-watchers began sniffing foul play in that the rate never varied. But not to be outdone, Jamaica's schemes offered up to 70 times that rate of return, with an equally regular rate.

The rest, anyhow, is history. It made for a difficult year for the economy. And when we finally seemed to turn the corner, we were hit by a global crisis that nearly plunged the world economy into the next depression. Rapid, if confused, reactions by the world's major powers appeared to forestall the worst. But a global recession took hold, whose worst is yet to come.

So, many are finding it hard to feel festive this Christmas season. Still, we should at least be philosophical. I came across a lovely metaphor used by the Bishop of London recently: "It's only when the lights go out over London that people will notice the beauty of the night sky," he said. Rather as power-cuts switch off the television and cause families to revert to story-telling, tough economic times may give us reason to pause and consider where we are heading.

Lean times

Not that I'm counselling complacency. The next year or two will be very trying for all of us. But lean times are a part of life, and adjusting to them and dealing with them is part of the deal. And amidst the economic chaos, 2008 still yielded some positive achievements. In particular, we'll enter one of the most difficult periods of recent history with the world's greatest power - not to mention our largest trading partner - led by a man who, frankly, reassures me by his presence.

And that made me think of something else. Days after Barack Obama's election, the great voice of the black liberation struggle, Miriam Makeba, died while performing at a concert against organised crime in Italy. How fitting, I thought. She could sleep after a lifetime of achievement. When she was born, blacks could not vote in South Africa, and they could scarcely vote in America. Next year, black men will run both countries. Martin Luther King, Jnr., had not been killed in vain.

And yet, perhaps the greatest symbolism of all was that Ms Makeba died while performing at a concert against organised crime in Italy. The struggle against injustice was not, for her, something which ended when South African became free. She gave her voice to the battle for a better world everywhere, and died fighting another battle she was in no doubt would be won.

On that note, while I am happy to close the book on 2008, I do so with a sense of cautious optimism. The road ahead will not be easy. However, it seems that those who hope for a better world will not walk alone in 2009.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent think tank affiliated to the UWI, Mona..

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