The global airline industry can expect a bleak 2009, with sectorwide losses of about US$2.5 billion despite deep cost cuts by United States (US) carriers last year, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said Tuesday.

IATA chief executive Giovanni Bisignani told reporters in Geneva that next year would the worst revenue environment in 50 years, but that US carriers - many of which have already slashed capacity and cut staff as high oil prices sapped revenue during 2008 - could still turn a modest profit next year.

"North America will be the only region in the black, but the expected US$300 million profit is less than one per cent of their revenue," Bisignani said. "2009 will be another tough year for everyone."

IATA forecasts that passenger traffic will drop three per cent in 2009, the first decline since 2001 when the terrorist attacks on the United States abruptly slowed global air traffic by 2.7 per cent.

Lower oil prices will help cushion the blow, with the average cost per barrel next year predicted to hover around $60, translating into an industrywide fuel bill of US$142 billion.

Lower oil prices

"This is US$32 billion lower than in 2008 when oil averaged US$100 per barrel," Bisignani said.

In fact, lower oil prices will help overall industry losses to narrow from 2008, when IATA now expects a loss of US$5 billion.

That is slightly lower than the US$5.2 billion it had predicted in September and is due to the rapid decline in fuel prices.

Cargo traffic will drop five per cent in 2009 following a decline of 1.5 per cent in 2008.

- AP