Jamaica Gleaner
Published: Sunday | November 30, 2008
Home : Commentary
Wanted: a crisis Cabinet
When the Cabinet finally gets around to Prime Minister Golding's promised retreat to review the state of the economy - which can't be too soon - the PM has to be frank and blunt about the crisis facing Jamaica.It is long past time for the sugar-coating that has been the staple of the likes of Ed Bartlett, the tourism minister, and Audley Shaw, who, as the manager of the economy, ought to know better. The circumstances demand a big dose of reality.

In the event that Mr Golding did not know, or has forgotten, the issues that confront his administration in the face of global financial crisis and economic recession, we remind him of the following:

The outlook for tourism is bleak as American and Europeans, concerned about the weakness in their domestic economies, hold tight to their pocketbooks. Hotels report forward bookings into next year at between 35 per cent and 50 per cent below the norm. Several cruise-ship calls are in danger of being cancelled.

The market for alumina has grown soft and the price of the commodity has tumbled. Moreover, Oleg Derpaska, the Russian oligarch who controls the world's largest aluminium company, Rusal, has lost billions of dollars in the financial crisis and is looking for capital to shore up his operation. Rusal controls a major chunk of Jamaica's alumina business.

The export of banana has collapsed with the withdrawal of Jamaica Producers Group from the market because of the destruction of its farms by hurricanes. This problem is exacerbated by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) having ruled again against the preferential arrangements Jamaica enjoyed for the fruit in European Union.

sugar barely limping

The sugar industry is barely limping along, with falling prices and the erosion of preferences in Europe as the EU responds to the WTO pressures.

The planned divestment of the sugar factories and estates to Brazil's Infinity Bio-Energy for ethanol production is, at best, wobbly, given the shrinkage of Infinity's share price and its likely difficulty in raising cash.

Then there is the Government's pre-existing fiscal problems, the uncertainty that it can raise cash on the international money markets, as well as the likely slowdown in remittances from Jamaicans abroad.

All these, in our view, translate into a concept that Mr Shaw does not like but which the Government had better embrace if Jamaica is not to hop and skip merrily over the precipice. It is this: Jamaica is facing a crisis.

However, to avoid the worst demands strong and effective leadership from Prime Minister Golding, who, even as he demonstrates clear command of the Government, has to overcome his instinct to centralise and learn to delegate. That, of course, demands that Mr Golding assemble a credible management team - at the level of the political executive and in the broader civil service. This will demand a move beyond rhetoric, a willingness to take tough decisions, and an accommodation to the idea that there will be a heavy political price to pay for actions taken.

The challenges faced by Jamaica are perhaps unprecedented in the country's modern history, even if Mr Golding and his government may be too afraid to admit it - even to themselves. It is critical, however, for the Government to place the country on a 'war' footing and for Mr Golding to transform a necessarily shuffled and reshaped administration into a CRISIS Cabinet.

The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.

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